Comments on: Belichick going for it on 4th and 2 http://www.stevesbets.com/176/belichick-going-for-it-on-4th-and-2/ professional online poker player Mon, 03 May 2010 03:37:55 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: European http://www.stevesbets.com/176/belichick-going-for-it-on-4th-and-2/comment-page-1/#comment-7263 European Thu, 19 Nov 2009 17:14:41 +0000 http://www.stevesbets.com/?p=176#comment-7263 how good is "football" if they're carrying the ball in their hands... They don't bother to call it "American Football" anymore? I liked the comment once in "60 minutes" where they were showing about football in Europe. The commentator said something like "This game they call here a "football" :) whereas its only the USA that ball carrying in hands and throwing it calls it "Football". Funny. how good is “football” if they’re carrying the ball in their hands… They don’t bother to call it “American Football” anymore? I liked the comment once in “60 minutes” where they were showing about football in Europe. The commentator said something like “This game they call here a “football” :) whereas its only the USA that ball carrying in hands and throwing it calls it “Football”. Funny.

]]> By: Joe http://www.stevesbets.com/176/belichick-going-for-it-on-4th-and-2/comment-page-1/#comment-7262 Joe Thu, 19 Nov 2009 09:41:42 +0000 http://www.stevesbets.com/?p=176#comment-7262 What's even funnier about this situation is that it probably would even be a better idea to take an intentional safety in this spot rather than punt the ball away. What’s even funnier about this situation is that it probably would even be a better idea to take an intentional safety in this spot rather than punt the ball away.

]]> By: gambler2k4 http://www.stevesbets.com/176/belichick-going-for-it-on-4th-and-2/comment-page-1/#comment-7260 gambler2k4 Thu, 19 Nov 2009 03:18:18 +0000 http://www.stevesbets.com/?p=176#comment-7260 i think so far i've had the only intelligent answer. i think so far i’ve had the only intelligent answer.

]]> By: Ashok http://www.stevesbets.com/176/belichick-going-for-it-on-4th-and-2/comment-page-1/#comment-7259 Ashok Tue, 17 Nov 2009 10:14:03 +0000 http://www.stevesbets.com/?p=176#comment-7259 err, i meant 25.5% not 26.5 whoops err, i meant 25.5% not 26.5 whoops

]]> By: Ashok http://www.stevesbets.com/176/belichick-going-for-it-on-4th-and-2/comment-page-1/#comment-7258 Ashok Tue, 17 Nov 2009 10:12:30 +0000 http://www.stevesbets.com/?p=176#comment-7258 The 2 pt conversion number on the patriots of 66.7% last year (which we didnt use anyway, but did take into consideration) was with a matt cassel led offense. Also, peyton has to drive them 28 yards which is 8 yards more than the red zone data takes into account. This probably skews the number even more to something like 21% of the time where peyton has to score after a punt instead of 26.5. This is all guesswork of course. The 2 pt conversion number on the patriots of 66.7% last year (which we didnt use anyway, but did take into consideration) was with a matt cassel led offense.

Also, peyton has to drive them 28 yards which is 8 yards more than the red zone data takes into account. This probably skews the number even more to something like 21% of the time where peyton has to score after a punt instead of 26.5. This is all guesswork of course.

]]> By: Ashok http://www.stevesbets.com/176/belichick-going-for-it-on-4th-and-2/comment-page-1/#comment-7257 Ashok Tue, 17 Nov 2009 10:04:24 +0000 http://www.stevesbets.com/?p=176#comment-7257 I realize that math isnt the only thing to consider here, but here is some rough/quick math on the situation: The average 2 pt conversion rate in the nfl is between 50-55%. The patriots were in fact 66.7% in 2008. And even if the patriots had a small sample size of 2 pt conversions in 2008, they are still clearly better than avg (50-55%) so lets put their 2 pt conversion percentage at 60%. However, scoring a 2 pt conversion is done with a short field (the goal line as a very significant extra defender). This 2 yard conversion in the game was attempted with a full field. Let's add a small 3 % chance increase of conversion to it because of the full field. So the patriots have a 63% chance of winning the game immediately by going for it. However on the 37% of the time that they fail the conversion here is what can happen: Peyton scores, they kick the extra pt and colts win 69% (colts red zone percentage is 59.4% however Peyton gets 4 downs to work with here so lets say 70% chance of scoring a TD) Peyton scores, they kick the extra pt and patriots respond with a score of their own: 1%(this is a small chance obv with the time situation) peyton scores, they miss the extra pt tie game (anything can happen now in overtime, so lets say 50% chance of pats win here, so moot point) Peyton fails to score a td : 30% So the patriots win in 31% of these scenarios. Therefore this adds another 11.5% chance of pats winning by going for it. 74.5 % of winning by going for it on 4th and 2. Now do you think if they punted and peyton had to drive 70ish yards with a timeout and 2 mins left he would score less than 26.5% of the time? thats the real question i guess. (disclaimer, this math is really sloppy and with a lot of assumptions, but its just another way of thinking about it) I realize that math isnt the only thing to consider here, but here is some rough/quick math on the situation:

The average 2 pt conversion rate in the nfl is between 50-55%. The patriots were in fact 66.7% in 2008. And even if the patriots had a small sample size of 2 pt conversions in 2008, they are still clearly better than avg (50-55%) so lets put their 2 pt conversion percentage at 60%. However, scoring a 2 pt conversion is done with a short field (the goal line as a very significant extra defender). This 2 yard conversion in the game was attempted with a full field. Let’s add a small 3 % chance increase of conversion to it because of the full field. So the patriots have a 63% chance of winning the game immediately by going for it. However on the 37% of the time that they fail the conversion here is what can happen:

Peyton scores, they kick the extra pt and colts win 69% (colts red zone percentage is 59.4% however Peyton gets 4 downs to work with here so lets say 70% chance of scoring a TD)
Peyton scores, they kick the extra pt and patriots respond with a score of their own: 1%(this is a small chance obv with the time situation)
peyton scores, they miss the extra pt tie game (anything can happen now in overtime, so lets say 50% chance of pats win here, so moot point)

Peyton fails to score a td : 30%

So the patriots win in 31% of these scenarios. Therefore this adds another 11.5% chance of pats winning by going for it.

74.5 % of winning by going for it on 4th and 2.

Now do you think if they punted and peyton had to drive 70ish yards with a timeout and 2 mins left he would score less than 26.5% of the time? thats the real question i guess.

(disclaimer, this math is really sloppy and with a lot of assumptions, but its just another way of thinking about it)

]]> By: Joe http://www.stevesbets.com/176/belichick-going-for-it-on-4th-and-2/comment-page-1/#comment-7256 Joe Tue, 17 Nov 2009 06:18:56 +0000 http://www.stevesbets.com/?p=176#comment-7256 I'm curious at what yard line Belichick would punt on 4th and 2. It's kind of like calculating his range. I’m curious at what yard line Belichick would punt on 4th and 2. It’s kind of like calculating his range.

]]> By: stevesbets http://www.stevesbets.com/176/belichick-going-for-it-on-4th-and-2/comment-page-1/#comment-7255 stevesbets Tue, 17 Nov 2009 04:28:31 +0000 http://www.stevesbets.com/?p=176#comment-7255 I think Debt is making fun or gambler2k4 :( I think Debt is making fun or gambler2k4 :(

]]> By: Luke Kim http://www.stevesbets.com/176/belichick-going-for-it-on-4th-and-2/comment-page-1/#comment-7254 Luke Kim Tue, 17 Nov 2009 01:53:54 +0000 http://www.stevesbets.com/?p=176#comment-7254 Wait, isn't the call implying that the defense is great because even if they miss, they can stop the Colts? I have always thought that punting is more likely to show lack of faith in both your own offense and defense. Wait, isn’t the call implying that the defense is great because even if they miss, they can stop the Colts? I have always thought that punting is more likely to show lack of faith in both your own offense and defense.

]]> By: beast http://www.stevesbets.com/176/belichick-going-for-it-on-4th-and-2/comment-page-1/#comment-7253 beast Mon, 16 Nov 2009 23:12:51 +0000 http://www.stevesbets.com/?p=176#comment-7253 Ummmm, how is it at all like playing AA on the bubble when ur guaranteed to fold your way to a seat? And the whole "world class defensive players" argument holds no weight- obviously all NFL players are world-class athletes. so in that realm, though, the pats defense are in the lower echelon, plus they were tired. As the stats showed, the colts had at LEAST a 35 percent chance of winning even from the 70 yard drive (had they punted). If you can fold your way to a seat, you have way more than a 65 percent chance of winning that seat. Have you ever seen Peyton manning in the 2 minute drill? Not to mention the fact that the Pats get 2 yards usually with their eyes closed? Ummmm, how is it at all like playing AA on the bubble when ur guaranteed to fold your way to a seat?
And the whole “world class defensive players” argument holds no weight- obviously all NFL players are world-class athletes. so in that realm, though, the pats defense are in the lower echelon, plus they were tired. As the stats showed, the colts had at LEAST a 35 percent chance of winning even from the 70 yard drive (had they punted). If you can fold your way to a seat, you have way more than a 65 percent chance of winning that seat. Have you ever seen Peyton manning in the 2 minute drill? Not to mention the fact that the Pats get 2 yards usually with their eyes closed?

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