Nov 23 2009

MAILBAG #2

posted by stevesbets

It’s about the time of year again, the weather’s getting colder, the thanks are getting ready to be given, and it’s time for my Holiday Mailbag (Note, I have replaced links with XXXX):

From Jordan:

am writing this on the behalf on XXXX of 2p2
He is the author of the e-books two e-books
Given that your blog comments from your posts, we can assume that you have a solid based of readers. XXXX would like for people to review his book – The No Limit Workbook: Exploiting Regulars -XXXX

If you would like to review this book, please post the link XXXX on your blog, with it linking back to XXXX
You get the opportunity to review a great book for free, and the fact you need to review the book will ensure you get maximum value of information from the book.

Jordan, I have to say, when people ask for favors, they usually are not kind enough to offer me homework to ensure that i get “maximum value” from doing them that favor. The author of this email must have been a lawyer.

From Denise:

Please help me get my online account for me to use in Niles, Michigan instead of Texas or California, I need this account Niles, Michigan right away. I know you are powerful. Thank you Steve.

Denise, I do not dispute a single thing you write in your email, hopefully some bankers from Niles will view this blog and fix your plight. Thank you for your message.

From Patrick:

I would like to know my banking info for an application I’m filing out, I’m away from my info at the moment.

Patrick, you have come to the right place! I know a guy who has everyone’s bank info…

From Gus:

Subject: I WHANT LEARNING

Body: Yeah man ! well ? I read we can send you a message , and i would like know some advice about this game … what is your strategie post-flop… turn … where did you had find all this money man ,  for playing head’s up ?? i whant be a professional me to.Give me some advice thank man:=)

Gus, learning is a lifelong pursuit and I really whant it too.

From Tadas:

Hi i wanted to say that i am one of your biggest fans i spectate almost always when i find you online i just wanted to know what is optimum age to play poker in high stakes?

Tadas, like anyone I appreciate being spectated. I’d say the optimum age to play online poker is 13 because your mind is not quite developed enough to be bored by the monotony of online gambling. Conversely, given the population of people that play penny slots nonstop at the showboat in Atlantic City, maybe the optimum age is 83…

From Jane:

Steve, you seem introspective and thoughtful, I don’t understand why you don’t understand religion. Just look around at this world. Do you really believe that it was not created by a force greater than humanity? That defies logic and I know you are logical. Like Sarah Palin, I believe we could not have evolved from fish that cannot feel things like love, hate, greed, pride and all the other emotions that make us human. Please consider my comments in reevaluating your position.

Jane, I’m sorry, I cannot respond seriously to anyone who quotes Sarah Palin in her argument.

From Vijayalakshmi:

Subject Line: I have Some Questions

Body: Questions

Yup, these are my readers.



Nov 22 2009

Simmons on the Belichick decision

posted by stevesbets

I love Bill Simmons. He plays poker, he loves Vegas, he loves sports, he has my dream job. His sports columns on espn.com are consistently funny, well thought out and uniquely knowledgeable. I would love to be half the writer he is. His NBA knowledge is superb and I consistently agree with most of what he says. I tore through his book of basketball (~750 pages) in 2 days because Simmons on the NBA is a must read for someone as in love with basketball as I am. The only way he could be a more perfect sports writer for me is if he were from Philly rather than (sigh) Boston. With all of that said, his recent column on the Belichick decision makes some downright silly statements that I would like to address. You can read his column here

Firstly, I wanna say that I find his column far less objectionable than most of the arguments that Belichick made a poor decision. Simmons shows an understanding of statistical arguments (for the most part) and acknowledges their place in sports. I agree with his main point which is that in football, you can’t really know the EXACT %’s for specific situations so any statistical argument can be manipulated when it is a close call. My problem is that he refuses to acknowledge that 4th and 2 was a close call. Before I get into specifics I want to commend him for getting a nice little tilt on Andy Reid in there:

“The good news? I finally understood how Eagles fans felt rooting for a team helmed by Andy Reid. When your coach lets you down with a decision that makes no sense, it’s like riding in the passenger seat of a friend’s car and helplessly watching as he plows over a pedestrian in a crosswalk.”

So true.

Now onto the negatives. The most ridiculous line in the column is:

“by Monday night, based on various columns and message boards (as well as e-mails to my reader mailbox), you would have thought Belichick was a genius for blowing the game. He played the percentages! It wasn’t as crazy as it looked! By this logic, Belichick also should have held a loaded pistol to his head on the sideline, spun the chamber and tried to shoot himself like Chris Walken in “The Deer Hunter.” If those 1-in-6 odds came through and he succeeded, we could have said, ‘Hey, he played the percentages: 83.6666 percent of the time, you don’t die in that situation! You can’t blame him for what happened!’”

This analogy is simply ludicrous. Having a 84% chance of not dying in an instant when playing Russian roulette ignores that in the alternative, you have a (near) 100% chance of not dying by not doing so. In fact,  playing Russian roulette is clearly NOT playing the odds (100% vs 84%) so you COULD blame him.

Next Simmons goes off on some statistician that made a statistical model that came to the conclusion that Tim Thomas is an underrated NBA player. This can’t really be so. I agree with him. Thomas played for my beloved Sixers for a few years and he defined wasted talent. He was not a player you could build around or win around. With that said, The qualm is not with statistics themselves, its with someone misinterpreting statistics to mean something that clearly is not the case (that Thomas is underrated).

The rest of the article goes into arguments about why the statisticians simply misapplied statistics to the 4th and 2 decision and why in fact, if you look at the stats his (Simmons’) way, the Pats should have punted. I have no qualm with these arguments, I agree with many if not all of them. Maybe Belichick should have punted, I don’t quite know what the statistics are in that exact situation, what I do know is that most coaches totally ignore the chance of winning based on the different decisions they make and just follow conventional wisdom. That brings me to one other line I hated before I get to my final analysis:

“In the biggest game of the regular season, when a football coach tries something that — and this is coming from someone who watches 12 hours of football every Sunday dating back to elementary school — I cannot remember another team doing on the road in the last three minutes of a close game, that’s not “gutsy.” It’s not a “gamble.” It’s not “believing we can get that two yards.” It’s not “revolutionary.” It’s not “statistically smart.” It’s reckless.”

Just because no one has ever done it before doesn’t make it dumb or reckless. There would never be innovation if that were the case and Simmons knows that better than anyone. This is one of the reasons I like him so much, his Book of Basketball is filled with off the cuff comments and unusual suggestions to improve the NBA that no one has ever considered but I absolutely loved.  This line made me believe he was writing out of anger that his team lost rather than conscious, rational thought since it is so decidedly unlike him.

In the end, he basically makes two seperate arguments in the column.

1) There is more to the decision than just statistics. The gun analogy, the Tim Thomas thing, and his general tone suggests this dumb point of view that most of the other pundits have taken. This is totally ridiculous. As Simmons quotes in his column, “you play to win the game.” Whatever decision makes you most likely to win IS the decision you go with. There is no debating this.  If by going for it on 4th and 2 there, you have a better chance to win in that spot then the fact that no one has done it in your history of watching football is 100% irrelevant.

2) That the statistics in fact say that the Pats would have had a better chance to win the game by punting. I have no argument with this. I do not know enough (nor does anyone really) to say exactly the chance of winning the game in that exact situation by punting or not punting. I accept Simmons’ sports expertise so I like the points he makes.

I simply find it objectionable to say that there is more to football coaching decisions than statistics. No. If you have the correct statistics on what decisions will let you win more, you make those decisions. There are no ifs ands or buts. Even worse is the idea that you shouldn’t do something because nobody has ever done it. I hope Simmons never writes anything that silly again. Just as I swear by Bill Maher for politics and religion, I swear by Simmons for sports and it hurts me when he says something that i strongly disagree with.


Nov 16 2009

Belichick going for it on 4th and 2

posted by stevesbets

Last night I was asleep for the amazing finish of the NE-Indy game and I woke up to see articles about Belichick taking a terrible gamble and going for in on 4th and 2 from his own 28 up 6 points with 2 minutes left. I immediately loved the decision. I wish the Eagles would fire Andy Reid immediately and hire anyone that at least can contemplate looking at the game statistically.

Traditional NFL and MLB people are woefully bad at looking at statistics to make in game decisions. There is a saying that it is better to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally and nowhere to we see more followers of this misguided cliche than in these two sports. Belichick is one of the VERY few coaches that actually gets it and is willing to take the heat. His success is not an accident. Pretty much no matter how you play with the numbers, the Pats should go for it on 4th and 2 there when a first down ends the game. I’m not really going to get into the numbers but you all can look it up, it’s pretty clear.

On a day when Andy Reid made some of the most PATHETICALLY CONSERVATIVE Field Goal decisions I’ve ever seen, it was good to see one coach taking a stand against utterly mindless adherence to misguided “football knowledge”

Andy Reid is the absolute worst.


Nov 11 2009

Allen Iverson

posted by stevesbets

As many of you already know, I was born and raised near Philadelphia and from the time I could crawl I was obsessed with basketball. We had a court out in the backyard where I would tirelessly throw up shot after shot after shot in kindergarden even though I could barely reach the rim.

Once I learned to read, I was naturally drawn to the mostly silly books about the NBA stars of the day, Larry, Michael, Magic, Charles…The last one particularly excited me because Barkley played for my beloved 76ers. During grandparents day in first grade, the school was having a book fair and my Grandpa Eddie told me he would buy me one book so long as I promised to read it. There were pretty small informal biographies available for both Larry Bird and Magic Johnson, I had one of the toughest decisions of my young life over whose to get with my grandpa’s generosity. Magic and Larry may have thought their most famous finals moments were made at the Garden and Forum in 1984, but actually it was the square-off in my head 5 years later over who to read about first.

Magic won and I read things I still remember about how he would make a ball of socks and play sockball with brothers on rainy days so that he never missed a day of basketball, or about how when he was 11 or 12 he would never let a ball out of his hands, he just liked the feel and smell. I followed that for most of my young years. Outside of school, I could only be found with a basketball.

I could tell stories about childhood basketball and reading silly biographies of NBA stars for hour’s, the best of the lot was Barkley’s which I guess is no shock now, I was biased back then because my dad had a dislike for Barkley since he had recently spit on a young female fan. Anyway, my point is, I was legitimately obsessed with basketball, and sometime around the age of 13 or 14 I realized that while I could play a bit, the NBA was not in my future and I had to accept that. This didn’t lower my enthusiasm for my beloved Sixers who I continued to watch intently through the god-awful post Chuck pre AI years. I’m going to talk about their roster from memory so it is possible I will make a few mistakes.

For a disgruntled Charles, the Sixers got Jeff Hornecek, Andrew Lang and Tim Perry from the Phoenix Suns. The team now starred Hornecek (a very sharp shooting guard who didn’t do much else), Clarence Weatherspoon (and undersized recent lottery pick how was doing ok but would never be a team leader), Hersey Hawkins (A smooth classy guard, the hero of my young life, still not really a team star, but I did flip when he autographed my shoe at sixers camp, I still have that shoe…) and an eclectic mix of odd physical specimens like armen gilliam, manute bol, tim perry and eddie lee wilkens…If there were a god he certainly made these aberrant people for something, but it just wasnt to help the sixers win. They landed the number 2 overall pick in the lottery, a savior was on the way!! They picked Manute Bol lookalike Shawn Bradley, the only problem was, Manute could play more! Even at the time this was not the conventional pick in the 1993 draft, I was 10 and I knew that, they passed over Penny, Mashburn, Vin Baker, Allan Houston and a host of other good (though not great players)…another dreadful year….then we land the 6th pick in a draft that the pundits say has 5 players in it, Glenn Robinson, Jason Kidd, Grant Hill, Donyell Marshall, Juwan Howard. Oh well, at least we would get local guy Eddie Jones who impressed everyone in workouts….BUT NO, they take Sharone Wright, you don’t even want me to tell you about him…another terrible year….We landed another top 3 pick in 1995, which was truly an unbelievable draft class. The misfortune for the sixers, was getting LUCKY this year in the draft lottery, had they picked 4 or 5, they would have been blessed with Rasheed Wallace, or even better, Kevin Garnett!! a talent to build around, the Sixers got Jerry Stackhouse who they tried like hell to market like batman even though at best he is a very tiny Robin or a very big version of Alfred. To be fair, he was the consensus pick and the first pick of the draft, Joe Smith was a far bigger bust….another terrible year…1996 arrives and the sixers win the number 1 pick!!!! This draft has to be up there as one of the deepest drafts in NBA history but the ONLY choice at the time was Iverson. Right now there are many of the players on that list who are still in the league and flourishing. Ray Allen, Peja, Steve Nash, Jermaine O’Neal and my fellow Philly Mainliner, Kobe Bryant. Despite all of these talents, I do not regret the pick of Iverson for a second, and he is the only pick in my history with them aside from maybe Todd McCullough who i can say that about.

Iverson very naturally played the Batman role that Stackhouse couldn’t stomach. He instantly electrified crowds his first games in the NBA, he dropped staggering numbers in the most acrobatic of ways. He was shorter than I would be in only a few years and yet he was dominating this league of 7 foot behemoths. He played MJ that year and through a switch, Jordan ended up on Iverson, AI pulled out his trademark crossover dribble and drilled a shot over Jordan on the way to the Sixers beating the most dominant team of the generation. He made the greatest player of all time look downright silly in that moment, I was there for it and will never forget it.

As Iverson grew, there were growing pains, and finding the right supporting pieces was not always easy, the two most important turned out not to be players at all, they were Sixers new president Pat Croce and coach Larry Brown. These two harnessed Iverson and gave him a controlling authority he could respect. They set a team up around him where everyone cared only about winning. In 2000-2001 the results showed. The Sixers starting lineup that took them to a 41 and 14 start in which they took the league by storm. The lineup was AI, Eric Snow, George Lynch, Tyrone Hill and Theo Ratliff with Aaron Mckie as a 6th man. at the 41-14 mark, electric shot blocker Ratliff got hurt and they had to trade him to give themselves a chance at a title that year. They acquired an aging Dikembe Mutumbo to fill the middle.

That year Iverson led the Sixers to the finals in playoffs that included many of the best performances I have ever seen by one player. Iverson matched up every night against Reggie Miller, Vince Carter, Ray Allen, Kobe Bryant and he held his own the whole way. They won nail-biting decisive game 7s against the Raptors and the Bucks and even managed to take game 1 from the Lakers who had been 11 and 0 thus far in the playoffs. They came up short after that, but really that Kobe-Shaq juggernaut was just unfair, the fact that we competed with 5′10 Iverson and his host of role player at best sidekicks was incredible.

I was a senior in High School this year and I delighted in every minute of it. I had senior project at my cousin’s Law Office during the day in the spring, and after we’d hang out for awhile, I would drive right to the stadium many nights to spend about 3 hours just to walk around the building, feel the energy and the pre playoff excitement when AI was in the house. He was a tenacious competitor in every sense of the word. If I was in a fight to the death and could choose Iverson or Kobe, Kobe is way bigger, but you know who my choice would be. AI was so unstoppable despite his tiny stature that he spoke even more to a city like Philly that idolizes Rocky and Rudy, we liked the little guy and we had the littlest guy around getting knocked down hard many times a night but getting back up for us to continue going at it. There was never a player that energized Philly in the way that AI did. The current Phillies teams do, but no one of their players could do it. Iverson owend the city and as far as I was concerned, he deserved it, he gave me many of the highlights of my senior year capped off by him famously high stepping over tyronn lue after icing gambe 1 of the nba finals.

My dad and I went to half of the games that season, he wasn’t prone to showing much emotion, but sometimes Iverson would do things and he wouldn’t just smile, he would cheer. We spent years watching The spoon and the hammer (Weatherspoon and Gilliam) and now we were watching something truly special, he knew it was time to cheer.

That is how I know a player is special, my best, most precious family memories, involve the athlete himself doing something spectacular (a standard Iverson could hit many times per game). If I had 3.5 million dollars, I’d pay it to Iverson now to go to sixers games with me and laugh at the people that they have tried to replace him with. During these periods of mediocre basketball I would do anything to have Allen Iverson back.

We all know what is becoming of him now, he can’t accept a diminished role and he has bounced from team to team as a malcontent on all of them. He will probably retire soon. He may go broke after that, he is extraordinarily generous with those close to him. None of this would change my opinion of him. He added so much to my childhood that no other athlete, (even a good solid team player) ever did. Allen, if you are reading this, let’s go to a Sixers Grizzlies game together and laugh at the turnovers, the missed shots and the sixers core of guys making over 10 million per year (Brand, Dalembert, Iguodala) who will not be making any memories worth 10 cents for the families of Philadelphia.


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